Goldman analysts point to a bullish supply-side inflection point in the heavy machinery market, emphasizing that shrinking used equipment inventories have historically led to price increases in used machinery within 6–9 months and in new equipment within roughly 12 months. This inflection point suggests that a strategic window to purchase used heavy machinery has likely opened.
Goldman’s Jerry Revich and Clay Williams reiterated their “Buy” ratings on Deere (DE), Caterpillar (CAT), and United Rentals (URI), citing a bullish supply-side inflection point in the machinery cycle. According to their Machinery Supply tracker, declining used equipment inventories—a leading indicator—signal tightening supply and a capital stock drawdown for the first time in three years.
Here are the key highlights of the note:
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Shifts in used equipment inventories lead used values by ~6-9 months, new equipment production by ~12 months, with coincident performance vs. stocks. Jerry makes a purely supply-side call that points to upside beyond the economic cycle; he sees (i) declining capital stock for the first time in three years, (ii) under-production over the past year amid dealer inventory…
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