Earlier in the year, as regional banks faced a domino effect of failures, Bank of America strategist Michael Hartnett pointed out that every Fed tightening cycle has historically resulted in a crisis.
Given that the Federal Reserve hasn’t allowed a real credit cycle since the early 2000s, prolonged monetary tightening suggests that “winter is coming” for leveraged companies.
“The whole market and companies have been living in this la la land, this fake world of wealth of quantitative easing where you can borrow at 1% or 2%, you can buy anything, you can make lots of mistakes and you’re not going to get called out,” said Paul Horvath, chief executive officer at investment firm Orchard Global.
Horvath, speaking at the Milken Institute’s Middle East and Africa Summit in Abu Dhabi this week, was quoted by Bloomberg. He warned: “Winter is coming, and I don’t think people have enough parkas.”
The asset manager head said financial markets are holding up well so far, given the high rates. He noted corporates are levered up due to private equity firms buying up companies with cheap money, adding a global financial crisis might not be in the cards – but expects there will still be…
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