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OPINION: This article may contain commentary which reflects the author’s opinion.
Former President Donald Trump has a better-than-average chance at beating incumbent President Joe Biden next year, according to a new election analysis that examines several elements of the race.
In a column for RealClearPolitics, veteran political consultant Dr. Louis Perron, author of the upcoming book “Beat the Incumbent: Proven Strategies and Tactics to Win Elections,” writes that Trump isn’t a shoo-in for the White House, despite all of the things that have gone wrong on Biden’s watch.
“Elections with an incumbent are foremost a referendum on the incumbent. As two-thirds of Americans think that their country is headed in the wrong direction and more than half of voters tell pollsters that they disapprove of the job President Joe Biden is doing, the 2024 election is the Republicans’ to lose,” Perron begins.
But he notes that, in his book, he warns “candidates not to rely solely on the weaknesses, failures, and even scandals of an incumbent government. They are often not enough to bring down an incumbent government.”
To explain that, he cites a focus…
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