Authored by Michael Lebowitz via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,
“For me context is the key – from that comes the understanding of everything.” -Abstract Artist Kenneth Noland. That holds true for us as well! Proper context is required to appreciate better if market narratives accurately describe the truth.
For example, in Moody’s recent decision to put the United States government on credit watch negative, the context driving their decision is not necessarily run-away deficit spending, as most investors believe. They made their decision within the context of high-interest rates.
In the context of higher interest rates, without effective fiscal policy measures to reduce government spending or increase revenues, Moody’s expects that the US’ fiscal deficits will remain very large, significantly weakening debt affordability.
Make no mistake, large fiscal deficits and accompanying Treasury debt issuance are a problem. However, the downgrade is directly attributable to the level of interest rates. The concern will vanish quickly, regardless of debt issuance patterns, if interest rates fall appreciably.
At zero percent interest rates, Uncle Sam, or for that matter, you and…
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