Hayat Tahrir, al-Sham (HTS) led by Abu Mohammed el-Golani, has just taken Damascus. The officials of the Assad regime, and the administrative authorities are apparently in caretaker mode pending a transition of power. However, the capture of Damascus will be just the beginning to a massive change in the balance of power in the Middle East and perhaps the world.
The question most observers are now asking is: what if any form of stable central government might emerge from this lightning fast upending of the power dynamics in Syria? A possible lesson from history is that insurgent armies of diverse allegiance, religion and ideology are capable of capturing cities, but their ability to administrate them, ensuring supply of essential services and rule of law, less certain. It remains to be seen as to whether HTS can hold together the disparate elements that make up the forces that overthrew the Assad regime.
There are clear losers in the form of Russia and Iran at this stage, but it is not clear what major powers will move to fill the vacuum. Turkiye has an obvious interest, but even there lies risk with the involvement of the US backed Kurdish groups in the East. Nature…
Read the full article here