With less than three full weeks left until the end of the year, we are rapidly running out of key macro events, although Wednesday’s US CPI will be a key determinant if the Fed cuts later this month, and whether it will be forced to hike in 2025.
After Friday’s mixed payrolls report, the odds of a December cut went up from around 70% to 85% at the close. So the CPI will be the main event of the week according to DB’s Jim Reid. The ECB meeting the following day will also be a key event with markets pricing in a small chance of a 50bps cut but with 25bps nailed on. Elsewhere the key events of note will be the RBA decision (hold expected), China trade data and Danish and Norwegian CPI tomorrow, the BoC decision on Wednesday (possible consecutive 50bps cut), the Brazilian rate decision (75bps hike to 12% expected), alongside a 10yr UST auction, US PPI, the SNB decision and a 30yr UST auction on Thursday, and the BoJ Tankan quarterly survey on Friday ahead of an “in the balance” BoJ meeting on December 19th where the market is expecting a 36% probability of a hike. See the full week ahead at the end as usual but now we’ll preview the US CPI and the ECB decision in more detail.
For…
Read the full article here