An analysis of past elections shows that third-party candidates have at times had significant impacts on the winner.
The 2024 presidential election features a lineup of third-party candidates running against Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump who may or may not significantly impact the results on Election Day.
Not only were several of the battleground states decided with fewer than 30,000 votes in the 2016 and 2020 elections, but recent polls and election forecasters are predicting a narrow race that may fall within the margin of error for national and swing state surveys.
While third-party candidate impacts on past elections range from insignificant to monumental, any loss of votes for either Harris or Trump will likely affect the race—particularly since the four alternative candidates are on all or some of the ballots in battleground states.
This year, the prominent third-party candidates found on multiple state ballots are Independent Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who recently suspended his campaign; Jill Stein of the Green Party; Independent Cornel West; and Chase Oliver of the Libertarian Party. Other minor third-party candidates are running in various…
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