As the final days of the 2024 presidential campaign draw to a close and final polls are published, the race looks to be too close to call. That may or may not be true.
The “too close to call” CNN pollster Harry Enten best exemplifies school. He shows that Harry Truman’s search for a one-armed economist also applies to pollsters. Here we have the classic on the one hand, we have this:
If Trump wins, the signs were there all along.
No incumbent party has won another term with so few voters saying the country is on the right track (28%) or when the president’s net approval rating is so low (Biden’s at -15 pts).
Also, big GOP registration gains in key states. pic.twitter.com/knDQ2HOFtJ
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 30, 2024
But on the other hand, we have this:
Don’t count on polls underestimating Trump:
1. No party has ever been underestimated 3 pres. cycles in a row.2. In 2020, right leaning polls correctly said averages were way off. In 2024, averages look a lot more like the right leaning polls.
3. 2022: Dems were underestimated. pic.twitter.com/yHetD2Bzbx
— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) October 29, 2024
One of Reagan’s pollsters…
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